Google AI Overview Citations Are Pulling Less From Page-One Results
Key Takeaways:
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Ahrefs found that only 37.9% of URLs cited in Google AI Overviews also appeared in the first 10 search-result blocks for the same query.
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That figure has dropped sharply from Ahrefs’ July 2025 study, which found roughly 76% overlap between cited URLs and top-ranking pages.
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The updated analysis covered 863,000 keyword SERPs and 4 million AI Overview URLs.
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The findings suggest that traditional page-one rankings and AI Overview citations are drifting further apart than most marketers assumed.
TL;DR: Fresh research from Ahrefs shows that Google’s AI Overviews are pulling from a much wider pool of sources than they were a year ago, with fewer than 4 in 10 cited URLs now coming from page-one results. Search Engine Journal covered the findings and pointed to Google’s query fan-out process as a likely reason why.
Page-one rankings used to be a pretty reliable path to showing up in Google’s AI Overviews. According to new research from Ahrefs, that’s no longer the case.
Google still draws from top-ranking pages, but the share has dropped significantly. For brands focused on AI search visibility, this is worth taking seriously.
What are the implications of Google AI Overviews citing fewer page-one results?
The old assumption was simple: rank on page one and you have a strong shot at being cited in an AI Overview. Ahrefs’ new data suggests that logic doesn’t hold up nearly as well anymore. With AI Overviews now pulling a much larger share of citations from lower-ranking pages, marketers need to start thinking about AI visibility as something adjacent to SEO rather than the same thing.
1. Page-one rankings are no longer a reliable proxy for AI visibility
Top rankings still matter, but they’re no longer the clean predictor of AI Overview inclusion that many SEO teams were counting on. Ahrefs found that only 37.9% of cited URLs appeared within the first 10 search results for the same query, down from roughly 76% in its July 2025 study. That’s a significant drop, even accounting for Ahrefs’ note that its citation parsing has improved since the first round of research.
2. Google may be drawing from a much broader search context
Both Ahrefs and Search Engine Journal point to query fan-out as the most likely explanation. Rather than pulling only from the SERP triggered by the original query, Google can expand the search into multiple related sub-queries and cite pages that appear consistently across those results. A page can be genuinely useful to the AI system without ranking well for the exact phrase the user typed.
3. Non-traditional citation sources are harder to ignore
YouTube is the clearest example in the Ahrefs data. Among the cited pages that didn’t rank in Google’s top 100 for the same keyword, 18.2% were YouTube URLs. YouTube also made up 5.6% of all cited AI Overview URLs in the dataset. SEJ highlighted that as a sign that AI source selection is pulling from a broader mix of formats than standard ranking reports tend to capture.
4. AI visibility reporting is becoming its own discipline
If citations are increasingly coming from outside the top 10, traditional SEO reporting won’t fully explain why a brand is or isn’t showing up in AI-generated answers. That’s the bigger takeaway from this Ahrefs update. Teams need to track AI inclusion separately, especially as the growing role of AI in SaaS buying decisions.
What else should marketers pay attention to in the Ahrefs update?
The headline number got most of the attention, but there’s more context worth pulling out of the full Ahrefs study and Search Engine Journal’s coverage.
1. Ahrefs tested the pattern in more than one way: The company also ran the analysis using only standard organic results, and the finding held up, suggesting the drop in overlap isn’t just a byproduct of how modern SERPs are structured.
2. The 2025 comparison comes with a caveat: Ahrefs improved its citation parsing since the July study, so the two datasets aren’t a perfect like-for-like comparison. Some of the drop likely reflects better detection rather than a sudden change in Google’s behavior.
3. Other research is pointing in a similar direction: Search Engine Journal noted that a separate BrightEdge analysis also found low overlap between top-ranking pages and AI Overview citations. The methodology was different, but the broader signal looks consistent.
4. Factor recent Google changes into the narrative: Treat the January 2026 Gemini 3 rollout as key timing context:
- AI Overviews moved to Gemini 3 globally in January 2026: Ahrefs says the upgrade had been live since January 2026.
- Google has not confirmed any direct change to source selection: No official statement links the model upgrade to different citation behavior.
- But the timing is hard to ignore: The rollout closely coincides with the drop in overlap Ahrefs measured.
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